What Happens When the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lowered interest rates by 0.50% for the first time during this economic cycle. This will affect borrowing costs for individuals and businesses. This will also lower interest rates on savings accounts and Treasury bills.

With annual inflation coming closer to the 2% target and weaker employment in the last few months, the Fed’s attention is shifting to the labor market.

The next few months may provide a clue about how economic growth and markets will evolve into 2025.

Below, we will look at the last six cutting cycles and the patterns that emerged.

It might be obvious, but stocks tend to do well if we avoid a recession. In four of the last six cutting cycles, stocks were positive three, six, and twelve months later. In the two big bear markets from the 2000s, stocks fell in the months after the first interest rate cut.

Bond yields usually go down (and bond prices up) during most cycles. The Fed has improved its communication of its policies over the last few decades. Thus, the expected interest rate path is more known, so bonds react even before the first cut.

Below, the 2-year yield in teal fell more than 1% over the last few months.

Looking back, the two instances that stand out were in 1995 and 1998. Yields were flat three months later and higher over the next one-year and two-year periods. Both times, the economy did not experience a recession over the next year. During the other four times, the economy continued to slow down, and the Fed continued lowering interest rates.

Gold tends to do well in extended interest rate-cutting cycles and recessions. During non-recessionary cutting cycles, gold tends to move sideways to down.

The dollar has mixed results against other currencies when the Fed lowered interest rates in the past.

Changes in interest rates could take 12 to 18 months to filter through the economy. The debate around the size of the first cut is less important than where the policy rate arrives a year from now. Right now, markets expect the Fed to lower rates from 5.5% to 3.0% over this time.

We will be watching markets over the near term to see if signs point to a likely path of interest rates and the economy that correlate to recent history.

Important Disclosure Information

Marcum Wealth, LLC (“Marcum”) is an investment adviser registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a specific level of skill or training. A copy of Marcum’s current written Disclosure Brochure discussing its advisory services, fees, and material conflicts of interest is available upon request.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Marcum), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication, will be profitable, equal any corresponding historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Certain strategies and vehicles referenced in this communication, such as private investments, Opportunity Zones, and ESG investing, may present increased or novel risks, including potentially higher management fees, reduced liquidity, shorter performance histories, or increased legal or regulatory exposure, compared to more traditional publicly traded securities and investment strategies. All investors should consider these potential risks in light of their individual circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Marcum. The asset allocations reflected in this communication are targets only. Actual allocations can and often will deviate from these targets, including in instances of volatile markets, large deposits or withdrawals, or during account rebalancing.

Historical performance results for investment indices, benchmarks, and/or categories have been provided for general informational/comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  It should not be assumed that your Marcum account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices or categories. Please Also Note: (1) performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes; (2) comparative benchmarks/indices may be more or less volatile than your Marcum accounts; and (3) a description of each comparative benchmark/index is available upon request.

Not all services described herein will be necessary or appropriate for all clients. The scope of the services to be provided depends upon the needs of the client and the terms of the engagement. The potential value and benefit of the adviser’s services will vary based upon a variety of factors, such as the client’s investment, tax, and financial circumstances, and overall objectives. Neither personalized services nor financial or professional resources or processes should be construed as a guarantee of a particular outcome. All investing comes with risk, including risk of loss.

If you are a Marcum client, please remember that it remains your responsibility to advise Marcum, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify/advise us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Marcum is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Tax and accounting services provided by Marcum, LLP. Insurance services provided by Marcum Insurance Services, LLC.